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​Даже нефтегазовые доходы падают. Непонятно, за счет чего будет наполняться бюджет

Мишустин сказал, что доходы российского бюджета выросли. Но не все так просто

​Даже нефтегазовые доходы падают. Непонятно, за счет чего будет наполняться бюджет
Фото pixabay.com

Премьер-министр Михаил Мишустин: «Доходы российского бюджета выросли, несмотря на санкции».

Возникает два вопроса:

1. За счет чего?

2. Все ли так хорошо?

Давайте разбираться. По словам премьер-министра, доходы бюджета составили 20 трлн руб. за январь-сентябрь, что на 10 процентов выше показателя прошлого года. Посмотрим на статистику Минфина. Они скрывают часть источников поступлений, поэтому без 100 грамм тут не разберешься. Но мы попытались.

Доходы за январь-сентябрь 2022 года:

НЕнефтегазовые = 11,5 трлн руб. Это минус 2 процента (г/г). Тут прорывного роста нет.

Нефтегазовые = 8,5 трлн руб. Это плюс 38 процентов (г/г). Дорогое сырье сделало свое дело. Именно рост доходов от нефти и газа вытягивает доходы бюджета вверх.

Но! Важно посмотреть, какова динамика этих доходов. Вот нефтегазовые доходы по кварталам:

– 1 кв 2022 г. +84% (г/г)

– 2 кв 2022 г. +58% (г/г).

– 3 кв 2022 г. -11,5% (г/г). Все становится грустнее.

Что интересно, в октябре нефтегазовые доходы резко выросли. Аж +16 процентов (г/г). Но это вызвано НДПИ на Газпром, так что акция разовая.

Вывод? Высокие нефтегазовые доходы в первом полугодии объясняют рост доходов бюджета за январь-сентябрь. Но в последние месяцы падают даже нефтегазовые доходы.

Увы, пока нет понимания, за счет чего доходы бюджета могут расти в будущем. Остается молиться, что нефть с газом подорожают.

Оригинал



29 ноября 2022 в 23:50, просмотров: 5324, комментариев: 2


Комментарии:
Alkonowa1ow
Странно, что это пишет экономист и пусть даже либеральный профессор уважаемый господин Коган. Он плачется, что мол динамика нефтегазовых доходов в РФ в 3 квартале ушла в минус на целых 11,5%. Мол, «шеф все пропало, клиент уезжает, гипс снимают». Мол, что будет с нами дальше. А ничего не будет! А дальше будет то, что было и раньше. Осенне-зимний период вызовет подъем цены на нефть и газ, ибо запасенный в ПХГ Европы газ будут таять ежедневно и ежечасно и к марту в них останется критических величина газа в 30% ( а сейчас в них 90% и газ никому и на фиг не нужен, вот цена и упала). А когда начнётся спрос зимой на углероды и начнётся закачка газа в ПХГ, то цены на газ опять взлетят и бюджет России получит сверхдоходы. И все. Видимо либеральная экономика в ВШЭ переживает кризис, потому как экономисты из ВШЭ, такие как Евгений Коган, обладают лишь свойством паниковать, а не обладают даром предвидения. Не могут прогнозировать развития ситуации на сырьевых рынках мира. Впрочем и Наталья Зубаревич из МГУ слишком уж панически настроенная женщина. Хотя ее паника в начале марта не оправдалась и результаты пополнения бюджета за 10 месяцев великолепные. Проще надо быть и следовать тренды: «Ничего! Прорвёмся!». А страна Россия это богатейшая страна и такие проблемы, как сейчас, для неё семечки. Только Либералы мешают ей реализовать свой экономический потенциал. И все.
Dochimacho
Согласна с комментом. Может анализ ситуации просить комментировать у Дмитрия Абзалова?
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    }
    ["_m":"CComponent":private]=>
    array(1) {
      ["activerecord-relation"]=>
      object(EActiveRecordRelationBehavior)#334 (6) {
        ["useTransaction"]=>
        bool(true)
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        ["_enabled":"CBehavior":private]=>
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        *RECURSION*
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        NULL
        ["_m":"CComponent":private]=>
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  }
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              *RECURSION*
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}

Топ 10

  1. Депутаты Сургута единогласно приняли досрочную отставку Андрея Филатова 739
  2. В ХМАО готовятся к ледоходу на Оби 620
  3. ​«Красивая» дата апреля отпугнула влюбленных из ХМАО 555
  4. В ХМАО прокуратура начала проверку из-за жалоб педагогов на зарплаты 528
  5. Для жителей ХМАО увеличили число рейсов на курорты 481
  6. ​В новых районах Сургута повысят надежность электроснабжения 477
  7. ​В Нягани пьяный водитель врезался в ограждение и улетел в кювет 468
  8. ​Югорчане очистят 200 гектаров территории в ходе масштабного субботника 460
  9. В Сургутском районе в зону риска подтопления попали пять поселений 459
  10. Застройщик «ДСК-1» предлагает новый для Сургута формат жилья — квартиры с мебелью 458
  1. ​Валерия Пахтаева: «Федеральные торговые сети своей политикой убивают любое качественное производство в России. Сургут не исключение» 6468
  2. Синоптики прогнозируют похолодание до -19 градусов в ХМАО 4786
  3. ​Андрей Филатов досрочно покидает пост главы Сургута 3183
  4. «У семи нянек дитя без глазу» 2935
  5. Известный предприниматель из Сургута Валерия Пахтаева ушла из жизни 2312
  6. Наталья Комарова оценила работу Андрея Филатова 2221
  7. ​Десять новых объектов образования и спорта получит Сургут 2076
  8. В Сургуте молодые люди расстреляли две остановки 1920
  9. «У нас украли гараж»: как 77-летняя сургутянка пытается вернуть свое имущество 1895
  10. В Нижневартовске засор из тряпок едва не привел к коммунальной аварии 1856
  1. ​Сургут продолжит таять 10460
  2. Сургутянин сообщил о минировании гостиницы, его задержали 7558
  3. В выходные в Югре потеплеет до +8 градусов 7230
  4. Лоция против истории 7070
  5. В ХМАО произошел взрыв на котельной - погибла девушка 6714
  6. ​Валерия Пахтаева: «Федеральные торговые сети своей политикой убивают любое качественное производство в России. Сургут не исключение» 6468
  7. ​Время, вперед! Полвека назад в Сургуте… 6087
  8. Ретроградный Меркурий наступает / Обзор СИА-ПРЕСС 6046
  9. Нелегальный текстиль: рейд по местам незаконной торговли прошел в Сургуте 5080
  10. Синоптики прогнозируют похолодание до -19 градусов в ХМАО 4786